![]() The probability of the event not happening in 100 chances is. 904 - therefore the probability of the event happening is 1-.904 =. The probability of it not happening in 10 events is. 98 - therefore the probability of the event happening in two chances is 1-.98 =. The probability of the event not happening in two chances is. This means that the probability of the event not happening in any one time is 99%. The probability of the event not happening in any one chance (getting the bag) is 100% - 1% = 99%. If the rate of the event (getting the item) is 1 out of 100 (1%). as 2bags a day will take longer then 6months to be nearly guaranteed a 100% chance that one bag will contain a mountĬomment by 202925While I agree with Admon's analysis above, perhaps this is a more generally accessible way to think about it. its not possible to get more then 2 bags PER day & this is just calculations to the quotes numbers (stating 4bags). Well you see it would take 6months to have a near 100% chance 4 bags a day to be guaranteed a mount in one of those bags.ĮDIT: according to other postes. and we are now calculating for a month (4weeks) that is because im calculating using the value i got for the 1 week. n lets c wats the chance to get mount PER day.Ĭhance not to get mount is: (note 0.8% = chance of getting mount)Ĭhance to get mount per day (assuming 4 bags): Lets do this assuming u can have 4 bags per day. chance to get a 1 on a dice is: 1/6%Ĭhance to get a 1 on all 3 dice is: 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 here you can study this abitįormula logic: the 1 = stating condition is possibleįor serveral items as variable x (variables can be in the form of # of. u no probability n statistics dont work rly in addition. ![]() 100% to get mount /4% to get mount per day = 25days. Gonna keep my dailies better organized for this baby n_n (you can have it in ~25 days with 4 bags a day) With an estimated chance of ~1% it won't take long before everyone has it. Just a heads up for anyone looking to find a smaller mount. It's not quite as useful as the smaller version of the polar bear mount was, but it's a decent compromise. It is my new everyday land mount.ĮDIT: Since this mount had it's size increases in 3.0.8, I have found it useful to use a riding wolf from Orgrimar (previously unavailable to Taurens). True, larger mounts are more impressive and are even more useful when traveling through swampy areas, but this thing is just downright practical for any Tauren to own. If you play a Tauren and you want to travel through some smaller sized passages while mounted, this is the mount for you. Don't get my wrong, I like my Black War Mammoth, which is so large when mounted by a Tauren that it is necessary to dismount while crossing the thandol span between arathi and the wetlands. I can finally travel through doorways without getting stuck. While this is frustrating to some people, as someone who plays a Tauren, I find it decidedly convenient. Comment by DernarThis mount is still significantly smaller than other bear mounts and other mounts in general.
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